Final result: Bilal Hasan wins by KO in Round 2. Bilal Hasan was correctly picked as the winner, but the finish came via knockout in Round 2 rather than the predicted decision over the full distance.
🧾 Prediction Summary
Bilal Hasan enters as a massive favorite (-850) and stylistically holds most of the cards against Nilson Rojas. Hasan is the more complete, pressure-oriented fighter with superior wrestling chains and cardio to sustain pace over 15 minutes, while Rojas relies on single-shot power and low-volume counter striking that fades when forced to wrestle. The key factor is takedown defense: if Rojas cannot keep it standing early, Hasan will control time, damage, and scorecards. Expect Hasan to mix striking and timely takedowns to break Rojas down systematically. Prediction: Bilal Hasan to win by decision or late TKO after control.
📅 Match Information
🗓️ Date & time: 29 August 2026, 13:00 MSK (10:00 UTC)
🏟️ Venue: Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Shanghai, China
🏆 Competition: UFC Fight Night – Hasan vs Rojas (29.08.26)
📊 Duration: 3 rounds of 5 minutes
⚖️ Division: Bantamweight
🔴 Team 1: Bilal Hasan — 9-1-0, Wrestler / Pressure Striker
🔵⚪ Team 2: Nilson Rojas — 6-4-0, Striker / Counter Puncher
🥊 In-Depth Fighter Analysis
🔴 Bilal Hasan
Bilal Hasan is a high-pace bantamweight built around chain wrestling and constant forward pressure. He doesn't have one-shot power but breaks opponents with volume, cage control, and relentless top pressure, blending double-legs and body-lock takedowns into dirty boxing and ground-and-pound. His cardio is a weapon – he gets stronger in rounds 2 and 3 while opponents fade.
- Record: 9-1-0 (3 KO, 2 Sub, 4 Dec) – 55% finishes, undefeated in last 6
- Signature: chain wrestling + ground-and-pound, strong top control and elbows
- Defense: 68% takedown defense, solid chin, absorbs 2.81 significant strikes per minute
- Form: W-W-W-W-W – 4 UFC / Contender wins, last win by unanimous decision
- Key to victory: pressure forward, force wrestling exchanges, and outwork Rojas late
🔵 Nilson Rojas
Nilson Rojas is a rangy counter-striker who looks to keep distance and land the right hand and knees on entries. He is dangerous early with explosive power but has a thin gas tank and struggles when forced to wrestle for extended periods. Against pressure wrestlers he tends to fade, giving up back position and control time.
- Record: 6-4-0 (4 KO, 0 Sub, 2 Dec) – 67% finishes, all KOs
- Signature: counter right hand and knee, low output but heavy power
- Defense: 54% takedown defense, 61% striking defense, vulnerable on the ground
- Form: L-W-L-L-W – 1-3 in last 4, coming off a KO win over lower-level opposition
- Key to victory: keep distance, defend early takedowns, and land a big counter in round 1
⚖️ Extended Comparison Table
Winhero
150% Welcome Freebets up to €300 for the first three deposits
No promo code needed — the offer is already tied to this link. Bonus terms apply on the operator's site.
CrazyTower
First-Deposit Bonus: 100% up to €200
No promo code needed — the offer is already tied to this link. Bonus terms apply on the operator's site.
Slotsgem
Welcome package up to 1450 € + Instant bonus round + 225 FS
No promo code needed — the offer is already tied to this link. Bonus terms apply on the operator's site.
PlayBaze
50% Welcome Risk Free Bet
No promo code needed — the offer is already tied to this link. Bonus terms apply on the operator's site.
Ivibet
First Deposit Bonus for Sports Betting: 100% up to €150
No promo code needed — the offer is already tied to this link. Bonus terms apply on the operator's site.
18+. Advertisement. Gambling involves risk — play responsibly and never bet more than you can afford to lose.
| Metric | 🔴 Fighter 1 | 🔵 Fighter 2 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (W-L-D) | 9-1-0 | 6-4-0 | Bilal Hasan |
| Finishes (KO/Sub) | 3 KO / 2 Sub (5 finishes) | 4 KO / 0 Sub (4 finishes) | Bilal Hasan |
| Height / Reach | 170 cm / 173 cm | 175 cm / 178 cm | Nilson Rojas |
| Age | 27 | 31 | Bilal Hasan |
| Form (last 5 fights) | W-W-W-W-W | W-L-L-W-L | Bilal Hasan |
📊 Head-to-Head History
No previous head-to-head meetings. This is the first UFC matchup between the two. Stylistically it is a classic wrestler-pressure vs counter-striker clash, and recent divisional trends strongly favor the fighter who can dictate wrestling and cardio – profile that fits Hasan.
🤖 Extended AI Analysis
GPT-5.5 • Style Matchup
Hasan's chain wrestling and high-pressure top game is kryptonite for Rojas' low-volume counter striking. Rojas needs space to land power, Hasan takes it away with constant forward pressure and level changes.
DeepSeek-R2 • Form and Stats
Hasan is 9-1 and 5-0 in his last 5 with dominant control time (+3:30 per fight), while Rojas is 1-3 in his last 4 and fades after round 1. The market correctly prices Hasan around 1.11 as a heavy favorite.
Gemini 3 Pro • Size and Physicality
Rojas has a 5cm reach edge but Hasan is younger, has superior cardio and strength in clinch exchanges. Height won't matter if Hasan can close distance and force wrestling early.
Claude Opus 4.8 • Key Exchanges
The fight hinges on early takedown defense. If Rojas survives round 1 without being grounded for long, he has a puncher's chance. If Hasan lands 2+ takedowns, his ground-and-pound and decision equity skyrockets.
💰 Average Odds (across bookmakers)
Full Betting Line
Winner
- Bilal Hasan Win: 1.11
- Nilson Rojas Win: 6.00
Total Rounds
- Total Over 1.5 Rounds: 1.75
- Total Under 1.5 Rounds: 2.00
Method of Victory
- KO/TKO: 3.20
- Submission: 5.50
- Decision: 1.65
Finish / Decision
- Fight Goes to Decision – Yes: 1.62
- Fight Ends Inside Distance – Yes: 2.25
🎯 Tactical Breakdown & Scenarios
Control Win for Favorite (62%)
Probable score: 30-27 Decision for Hasan
Hasan closes distance, lands 3-5 takedowns and controls 7+ minutes on the ground. Rojas lands isolated counters but offers no sustained offense and loses clear decision.
Late Ground and Pound TKO (23%)
Probable score: TKO Round 3
Hasan wears Rojas down with wrestling and against the fence. Exhausted Rojas gives up mount or back in round 2-3 and referee stops it after unanswered elbows.
Underdog Upset (15%)
Probable score: KO Round 1 for Rojas
Rojas keeps it standing early, catches Hasan shooting with a knee or overhand right and scores a flash KO. Requires perfect timing and low probability but is his only realistic path.
🏆 Final AI Consortium Verdict
🎯 Final Prediction
Bilal Hasan to win by Decision
Stylistic and cardio mismatch at -850. Hasan should dictate pace, win wrestling minutes and sweep scorecards even if finish doesn't come. The most probable outcome is a control-heavy decision.
Best bet: Bilal Hasan to Win (1.11)
💎 Optimal Staking Strategy
🥇 MAIN (45% of bankroll)
Bilal Hasan to Win 1.11
Heavy favorite with clear stylistic control. Low odds but highest probability outcome aligned with verdict. Probability: 85%
💰 SAFE (30% of bankroll)
Fight Goes to Decision – Yes 1.62
Hasan's 4 of 5 last wins by decision and Rojas' chin holds early. Control path points to scorecards. Probability: 62%
🎯 METHOD (20% of bankroll)
Bilal Hasan by Decision 1.65
Matches forecasted method. Better price than moneyline and captures Hasan's most likely win condition. Probability: 62%
⚡ EXOTIC (5% of bankroll)
Bilal Hasan to Win in Round 3 or by Decision 2.40
Latent finish upside if Rojas gasses. Small stake for value on late TKO/decision corridor. Probability: 18%
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Betting involves risk. Play responsibly. 18+.
❓ FAQ: Bilal Hasan — Nilson Rojas
Winhero
150% Welcome Freebets up to €300 for the first three deposits
No promo code needed — the offer is already tied to this link. Bonus terms apply on the operator's site.
CrazyTower
First-Deposit Bonus: 100% up to €200
No promo code needed — the offer is already tied to this link. Bonus terms apply on the operator's site.
Slotsgem
Welcome package up to 1450 € + Instant bonus round + 225 FS
No promo code needed — the offer is already tied to this link. Bonus terms apply on the operator's site.
PlayBaze
50% Welcome Risk Free Bet
No promo code needed — the offer is already tied to this link. Bonus terms apply on the operator's site.
Ivibet
First Deposit Bonus for Sports Betting: 100% up to €150
No promo code needed — the offer is already tied to this link. Bonus terms apply on the operator's site.
18+. Advertisement. Gambling involves risk — play responsibly and never bet more than you can afford to lose.
The fight takes place on 29 August 2026 at 10:00 UTC (13:00 MSK) at the Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Shanghai, China, as part of UFC Fight Night. It is scheduled for 3 rounds of 5 minutes in the Bantamweight division.
Prediction: Bilal Hasan to win by Decision. Hasan is a massive favorite due to chain wrestling, forward pressure and superior cardio. The most likely scenario (62%) is Hasan landing 3-5 takedowns and controlling 7+ minutes to a 30-27 decision, with a late TKO in round 3 as the second most likely outcome.
Average market odds: Bilal Hasan Win 1.11, Nilson Rojas Win 6.00. Totals: Over 1.5 Rounds 1.75 / Under 1.5 Rounds 2.00. Method: Decision 1.65, KO/TKO 3.20, Submission 5.50. Fight Goes to Decision – Yes 1.62, Fight Ends Inside Distance 2.25.
There are no previous head-to-head meetings. This is the first matchup between Hasan (9-1-0) and Rojas (6-4-0). Stylistically it is a classic pressure-wrestler vs counter-striker clash, a matchup that has heavily favored wrestlers who can dictate cardio and control time at bantamweight.
Bilal Hasan (27, 9-1-0, 3 KO/2 Sub) – pressure wrestler with chain takedowns, ground-and-pound and excellent cardio, on a 5-fight win streak. Nilson Rojas (31, 6-4-0, 4 KO) – rangy counter-puncher with one-shot power in his right hand/knee, but low output, 54% takedown defense and vulnerable when forced to wrestle.
The card will be broadcast live on UFC Fight Pass and via the official UFC broadcast partners in your region (including ESPN+ in the USA). Prelims typically start a few hours before the main card at 10:00 UTC – check your local listings for exact start time. 18+ Gamble responsibly.
More predictions
- 🏒 Mlada Boleslav — Dynamo Pardubice (25.09.2026): Detailed AI Prediction & Analysis
- ⚽ Lithuania — Azerbaijan (27.09.2026): Detailed AI Prediction & Analysis
- ⚽ Serbia — Netherlands (27.09.2026): Detailed AI Prediction & Analysis
- 🏒 Verva Litvinov — Sparta Praha (25.09.2026): Detailed AI Prediction & Analysis
- 🏒 Kosice — Poprad (25.09.2026): Detailed AI Prediction & Analysis
- 🏒 Energiya Karlovy Vary — Ceske Budejovice (25.09.2026): Detailed AI Prediction & Analysis
- ⚽ San Jose Earthquakes — Portland Timbers (27.09.2026): Detailed AI Prediction & Analysis
- ⚽ Tigres de la UANL — Puebla (27.09.2026): Detailed AI Prediction & Analysis